BOKO HARAM'S DOOMED MARRIAGE TO THE ISLAMIC STATE (PART ONE)

Daveed Gartenstein-Ross and Jacob Zenn

August 26, 2016

When the Nigerian jihadist group popularly known as Boko Haram publicly pledged its allegiance to the Islamic State in March 2015, this new alliance made perfect sense to both groups. For the Islamic State, Boko Haram’s pledge of allegiance (bayat) was a powerful symbol that it was winning the intra-jihadist competition with its mother organization al-Qaeda, with one observer describing the Nigerian group’s shifting allegiance as “a huge defeat for al-Qaeda and a huge coup for” the Islamic State.

The potential upside for Boko Haram could also be discerned easily. One analyst observed that the Islamic State has “the ability to export know-how,” and that doing so in Nigeria could mean that “the already quite substantial problems of containing Boko Haram become that much harder.” But this relationship did not work out as planned.

During the course of a strategic communication project we both worked on in Nigeria earlier this year, we discovered that key leaders in Boko Haram almost certainly regretted joining the Islamic State. Had it remained a part of al-Qaeda, which has a far stronger African network, Boko Haram would almost certainly be a more potent organization today.

After completing our work in Nigeria, we co-authored an article for Foreign Policy arguing that Boko Haram was experiencing “buyer’s remorse” over its pledge to the Islamic State, and that al-Qaeda would likely try to exploit this sentiment within the group by attempting to peel Boko Haram away from the Islamic State (though it would not necessarily want the organization to openly align with al-Qaeda). Shortly after our article was published, Gen. Thomas Waldhauser, the nominee to lead the U.S. Africa Command, said at his nomination hearing that Boko Haram has fractured, with about half of the group breaking off “because they were not happy with the amount of buy-in, if you will, from Boko Haram into the ISIL brand.”

The Islamic State subsequently announced that Boko Haram’s erratic and enigmatic leader Abubakar Shekau, whose faction was seen as too independent, had been replaced by Abu Musab al-Barnawi.

We have many reasons to question the long-term sustainability of the relationship between the new leadership that the Islamic State appointed in Boko Haram — which has taken on the new name of the Islamic State’s West African Province — and the Islamic State itself. Al-Qaeda will likely patiently wait for that relationship to fail just as the relationship with Shekau failed, and then try to pick up the pieces...

Daveed Gartenstein-Ross is a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and the Chief Executive Officer of Valens Global, a consulting firm that focuses on the challenges posed by violent non-state actors. Jacob Zenn is a Fellow of African Affairs at The Jamestown Foundation, a Senior Consultant at Valens Global, and an Adjunct Assistant Professor at Georgetown University, where he co-teaches a course on violent non-state actors with Gartenstein-Ross. Zenn also works on projects in countering violent extremism in Nigeria.

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